Poker Pot Odds 6
If you somehow knew for certain that your sole +op-ponent held AVA4, which two cards would you pick to give you the best statistical chance to beat him, if you played to the end of the hand? Answer at the end of the chapter.
If you’ve played in a few hold ‘em games, you’ve undoubtedly noticed that it’s not pocket aces or kings that win every hand. Usually, it’s a hand that you wouldn’t bet on every time, like KV9*, Q*3*, or 5454. No hand is totally worthless, it’s just that some are obviously worth more than others.
Given the right circumstances, almost any hand can be an underdog. Even pocket aces are not a favorite if there are more than six players in the hand. The secret, the one thing that makes it alright to play an apparently bad hand, the great equalizer, is pot odds.
Test Your Knowledge
The reigning Super Bowl champions right now are the New England Patriots (Fall, 2002). The UCLA Bruins are a good college football team, but, if these two teams were to play each other, and each team played their best game, the college team would almost never win a game. Can you think of any reason in the world why anyone would ever bet on the Bruins in an honest game? I know this is not a poker question. I’m testing your ability to see the big picture.
Answers to Test Your Knowledge Questions #5-7
5. Your odds are 1.33:1, or 4:3.
6. The cards you should choose are the 6*5* or the 6454. You will win 22.89% of the time. There are no two other cards that will win that often against pocket aces. You will win all ♦ and 4 flushes, you will win when there are four ^s or four 4s on the board, and your 6 will steal a win when the board has a wheel.
7. The answer has to be pot odds. If the Bruins are expected to win (for example) only one time in fifty, then the odds on your bet have to be greater than 50:1. For every $ 1 you bet on the underdog, you’d have to be paid more than $50 for this bet to be profitable for you in the long run. (50:1 and $50 are just an example, not any actual odds).
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Poker Pot Odds 5
It's okay to play hands that have big odds against them as long as the pot is offering even bigger odds. If you hold a small pocket pair, your odds of flopping another same card to make a set are about 1 in 8. That's 7:1 against. If you add in the fact that you can win the hand a few other ways without flopping the set, you'll win the hand about 1 out of 3 times. Those are odds of 2:1.
In this situation, you need two other players in the hand to get the right odds to play the hand and break even in the long run. If you have three other players in the hand, you have a slight overlay, but it may not be enough to overcome the effect of the rake, the jackpot drop and your relative inexperience at the game. In other words, if you play the hand, you risk being outplayed and losing to a better player, when you might have won the hand against weaker players.
I strongly recommend that you don't play small pocket pairs unless you're getting pot odds of at least 5:1. This strategy will save you a lot of losing hands and a lot of fluctuation in your bankroll. When you do win a hand, it'll be a good-sized pot, because you made sure of that before you called the first bet.
Don't forget that flopping a good hand doesn't necessarily mean that you'll win. Not only do you need the right odds to play a hand, you need to cushion those odds to allow for the fact that you'll sometimes make the hand and then lose with it. It's very expensive to be holding A*K>, get two more 4s on the flop, get the fifth ♦ on the turn, make the nuts, and then lose the hand when the board pairs on the river.
I don't give too much thought to padding the odds (requiring grossly excess odds) when I hold two big cards, but I'm a stickler about it when I play smaller cards. I like to play hands like 8V7V, or especially 6454 (now named for me because I won two tournaments with that hand), but I play them only in late position with a lot of players in the hand. If there are seven or more players in the hand, I'll usually raise before the flop to build a big pot in case I hit my hand.
This is a profitable move for me, because I'm getting great pot odds and I, unlike a lot of other players, can throw the hand away on the flop if I miss. Since I was going to play the hand for one bet anyway, the move actually cost me only one bet, and I know I'll get that bet back in the same situation in the long run.
Some of my opponents complain openly and bitterly that I "play garbage hands" and I "don't play anything like [I] recommend in my first book" when I beat them with small cards. What they fail to notice is that I only play those hands when I'm in late position and getting great pot odds. I usually just drag the pot without saying anything, and I have never, ever pointed this out to them. Until now.
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